Conduct a Pressure Test

Plan

In the military, units run drills under conditions far tougher than anything they expect to face in the actual operation. Borrowed from the practice of testing sealed containers, this is called a “pressure test.”
“It’s to expose flaws in the plan and to give people the psychological margin they need when the worst happens,” says Damian McKinney.

In business, contingency planning for worst-case scenarios is essential, yet many leaders keep such scenarios within a small circle of executives for fear of lowering morale.

An organization in which as many people as possible can calmly participate in a pressure test is a strong one.

Deep Dive

The military loves exercises—what they call rehearsals. Because lives are on the line, they repeat everything from tabletop simulations to live-fire drills before an operation, raising the odds of success even slightly.

“Of course, you can never anticipate every situation,” Damian says.
But by rehearsing under every worst-case scenario they can think of,

“you discover the flaws in the plan,”

“and you prevent people from panicking when they actually face the worst.”
And above all, he says, it reduces the number of so-called “unexpected situations.”
“For example, during the operation to kill Osama bin Laden, one of the U.S. helicopters crashed. But because the pilot had practiced emergency landings repeatedly, he managed to bring it down without casualties.”

For them, practicing worst-case scenarios is not about “spreading fear”—it’s simply part of the job.

When I once asked, “But what if something truly unexpected still happens?”,
he answered without hesitation:
“You assess what needs to be done within the constraints you’re facing, communicate it clearly to your team, and then trust them to carry it out.”

Working with former military commanders, I often see them create sudden “unexpected situations” during rehearsals for important events—killing the lights out of nowhere, switching radio frequencies—to test the team’s response and psychological resilience. And they do this while laughing:
“Ha! Something like this is bound to happen on the day itself.”
At first I would get angry:
“Hey, you soldier over there! This is no time to play around!”
But they would just smile and say,
“You’re the one who needs to relax the most.”

In business, too, we often prepare best-case, base-case, and worst-case scenarios for major projects. But normally, only a small inner circle is involved.

When I became a CEO for the first time in my early forties, a senior executive more than twenty years older told me:
“A CEO must always think about the worst-case scenario. Whenever I read a news article about a failure in some other industry, I automatically think, ‘How would this play out in ours?’
And when M&A becomes popular in one industry, it soon spreads to others because many CEOs share this same habit of thinking.”

Looking back, he was just like the military commanders—there was no sense of gloom. He simply repeated pressure tests in his mind as part of his everyday work.

In Japan’s business world, there are some pressure tests involving many employees—such as retail stores practicing pre-opening routines or companies holding disaster drills. But in general, many executives worry that “showing the worst will only cause anxiety,” and keep such information confined to the top management. A noteworthy exception was a certain hotel chain during COVID-19 that regularly shared its “probability of bankruptcy” with all employees.

No one dies in business.
For important initiatives, companies should run pressure tests involving the broader team, helping employees build the habit of treating worst-case scenarios as “just part of the job.”
If they do, not only will the organization’s resilience in crises improve, but its day-to-day operational strength will rise as well—and above all, work will become more enjoyable.